NRL Round 12 Best Bets - Warriors tipped for statement win over the Dragons

St George Illawarra enter round 12 under massive pressure after losing all 10 of their outings this season. Defensive discipline has been the major issue, with the Dragons leaking a total of 337 points. On the other side of the ball, the Dragons have been awful. 130 points in 10 games means the side is averaging 13 points scored per game along with over 33 points conceded. It is no wonder why they prop up the ladder. 

The Warriors have emerged as one of the competition’s most balanced sides following a stunning run that has seen the outfit win eight of their opening 10. Having scored 320 points and conceded just 182 points, the Warriors continue to prove they have struck up a fine balance between attacking and defending. 

The Warriors hold the edge across the last 10 meetings, winning six and covering the line regularly in low-error performances. Playing against the worst team in the league means there is little value in the match winner market or the Warriors by 13+ points in the winning margin market, so I recommend backing the travelling side with a hefty handicap as they hammer a side that is yet to win this season. 

North Queensland have shown flashes of quality without being particularly consistent this term. Their attack remains a threat, but defensive lapses continue to prevent serious momentum building. Recent performances suggest the Cowboys are capable of scoring well, but they have often been found wanting when it comes to keeping out sustained attacks from their opposition. 

South Sydney’s attack has been more efficient over the past month, with the side scoring 30+ points in six of their last seven. The worry for the travelling side will be that they have conceded 236 points in a less-than-stellar showing without the ball. Fortunately for the Rabbitohs is their impressive run against the Cowboys on the road, having won three of their last four against their opponents. 

This rivalry has been evenly split over the last 10 games. In their last 10, the Rabbitohs have won five times with the Cowboys winning the other five. Importantly, the Rabbitohs have won three of their last four on the road against their opponents, and I back a tight match in this one.