Super Rugby Best Bets - Semi-Finals

Heading into this one, the Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 matches, while they have successive wins heading into this one. Interestingly, their last defeat came in an enthralling 36-32 loss to their next opponents in their penultimate regular season match. 

The Crusaders were not at their best across the regular season with nine wins and six defeats seeing them secure 45 points. While they did finish seven clear of the Blues in fourth, they were 10 behind the Chiefs in second and 14 short of the Hurricanes at the summit. Defeats to the Reds and Force in April along with a 38-31 loss to the 'Canes at the start of May curtailed any hopes of topping the ladder, with three defeats in four outings a frustrating run. Despite this, the Crusaders are within two wins of the trophy. 

In their last 10 meetings, the Chiefs have won five times, with the Crusaders winning the other five. Importantly, the latter have won their last three against their opponents, with their 16-12 win at the start of this run coming in the grand final in 2025. The Chiefs have had issues beating the Crusaders when it matters most, and I believe that the Crusaders are the side to back to take their place in the final. 

Moving into the semi-final, the 'Canes have won six of their last seven, and they showed real character when bouncing back from a 47-14 loss to the Crusaders with a crushing 66-12 win over the Brumbies. Now, attention switches to beating a side they have twice put 40 points on this season (42-19 and 47-24). With no room for complacency in a major semi-final, I back the 'Canes to storm to a big win. 

The Blues ended the regular season as the best of the rest following a very impressive campaign. Eight wins in 15 matches was a solid return and, outside of the top three, the Blues were the only side able to return a positive points difference (+23). However, their current form is a major worry. Four consecutive defeats heading into this one has seen the Blues lose to the Crusaders twice, the 'Canes and the Chiefs. 

With two big wins coming against the Blues this season, I back another simple win for the 'Canes as they move into the final.