New Zealand vs France Preview & Tips - New Zealand backed for thrilling win over France in Nations Championship

France arrive for their opening match of the competition without a number of key players, while they conceded a combined 96 points across their last two matches against Scotland and England. 

New Zealand have won seven of their last 10 against France, with the French winning the other three. 

New Zealand face arguably the toughest test the northern hemisphere can throw at them, with the French in town this weekend. 

While they have won their last three against the French, their 31-27, 43-17 and 29-19 wins back in 2025 came against a real skeleton squad for France, meaning this will likely be a far closer game for the sides. 

An exciting backline that features Caleb Clarke and Will Jordan on the wings sees Damian McKenzie playing at 15, with the All Blacks likely to embrace the chaotic running rugby that France will try to employ. Quick ball will be the order of the day for both sides, making Cam Roigard vital at the base of the ruck, while captain Ardie Savea will look to be at his best on the ground whilst also running hard, direct lines. 

The two sides are well matched, making home advantage even more important in this one. New Zealand have won their last 11 home games against the French, with their last defeat on their own patch coming back in 2007. While I back this one to be a tight game, I do not see New Zealand losing as they start as they mean to go on. 

France went through the latter-stages of 2025 and the early parts of 2026 by winning six times and losing twice, with defeats to South Africa and Scotland blotting their copy books. 

Across their Six Nations campaign, France scored 33 points or more in each of their five games, but they saw their usually so reliable defence crumble in their final two games. Against Scotland, France were humiliated in a 50-40 defeat, while they barely squeezed past England in a thrilling 48-46 win at home. 

Unfortunately for France, they arrive without two of their most influential players for this one. Captain and best player in the world Antoine Dupont is missing, while try-scoring machine Louis Bielle-Biarrey is also out. While the pair are replaced ably by Maxime Lucu and Damian Penaud, the All Blacks will sense that this has weakened the touring side. 

I back Theo Attissogbe to go over the line in this one as he continues to impress after scoring five tries across the Six Nations in 2026. However, with France struggling against the All Blacks on the road, I do not expect him to end on the right side of the scoreline.